The international break has come to an end and AC Milan will be back in action this Sunday. It will be their first of three meetings with Napoli in 16 days, and it goes without saying that the outcome of the first will mean a lot.
Having both advanced to the quarter-finals of the Champions League, Milan and Napoli will now face each other three times in 16 days. First up is the league encounter, scheduled for this Sunday and it will sure be an interesting one.
Speaking at his usual pre-game press conference, Stefano Pioli admitted that Napoli have been a lot more consistent than Milan this season. He also stated that it doesn’t make much of a difference that Osimhen is injured.
Game date: Sunday, April 2nd
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Referee: Antonio Rapuano (VAR: Di Paolo)
Team news
After a period with very few injuries, they have seemingly returned for Milan. Junior Messias has been out for a few weeks and will miss this clash as well. He will be joined by Pierre Kalulu and Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the sidelines this time, both of whom picked up injuries during the international break.
Milan are hoping that Kalulu will be back for the first leg against Napoli, while Ibrahimovic could be out for a month. It doesn’t matter as much in his case, as he’s not included on the Champions League squad list.
In the defence, therefore, Simon Kjaer is expected to get the chance from start after impressing in the first leg against Tottenham. He also played both games for Denmark during the international break.
The big news is of course that Pioli is expected to switch back to the 4-2-3-1 formation, also paving the way for captain Davide Calabria to start on the right. He will be up against Napoli star Kvaratskhelia, which won’t be an easy task.
The latest reports suggest that Rade Krunic, after scoring a brace for Bosnia, has done enough to earn himself a starting spot. He should be the No.10 for this clash, which can be described as a balanced choice by the manager.
There is one doubt in attack, though, and that is the right flank. Brahim Diaz has impressed the most in that role lately and he remains the favourite to start, but if Pioli feels Calabria needs extra support in defence then Alexis Saelemaekers could get the nod.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer; Diaz (Saelemaekers), Krunic, Leao; Giroud.
The opponents
Napoli have obviously been flying high this season, currently first in the standings with a 19-point cushion. Luciano Spalletti’s work has paid off and the Partenopei are now reaping the rewards of a well-oiled machine.
The Scudetto has pretty much been secured by them, that’s the general consensus anyway, but it’s still an important game given the upcoming Champions League tie. And Victor Osimhen’s injury has at least created a framework for some doubt.
The Nigerian striker, who has scored 21 goals in the league this season, sustained an injury while on international duty and will miss the game. He’s also expected to miss the first leg in the UCL, meaning it’s a huge blow for Napoli.
Giovanni Simeone, who scored in the reverse fixture against Milan, is the likely replacement and he’s certainly a good one. Giacomo Raspadori has recovered from his injury and should be available as well.
Probable Napoli XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Mario Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Simeone, Kvaratskhelia.
Head to head
In recent history, Milan have struggled against Napoli quite a lot. Since the 2011/12 season, the two teams have faced each other 23 times and the Rossoneri have won just three times (8 draws). On the other hand, two of those wins came in the last five meetings.
The reverse fixture was a close one and many would say that Milan were the better side over 90 minutes. However, thanks to their efficiency, Napoli came away with all three points as Simeone scored the winner with a header.
The Partenopei took the lead in the clash after Milan missed several good chances. Giroud scored the equaliser in the second half and just as the Rossoneri had momentum, Napoli struck again. Kalulu also missed a golden chance to equalise again at the end.
Match facts…
➤ This will be match number 150 in Serie A between Napoli and AC Milan: the Rossoneri have won only two of their last 16 league matches against the Azzurri (D5, L9), but they have won two of the last five (L3).
➤ AC Milan have won both of their last two away games against Napoli in Serie A while only once have they achieved three consecutive wins at the Azzurri’s home in the top-flight: between 1948 and 1951.
➤ Napoli and AC Milan – who will also face each other in the Champions League Quarter-Finals – will meet at least four times in the same year for the first time since 1989/90: in that case, the Azzurri won their first league match and then recorded one draw and two defeats in the other three in Serie A and Coppa Italia.
➤ This will be only the second time in Serie A history where Napoli will face AC Milan with more than 15 points between them (23 in this case): the other occasion came back on 15th of April 2018, with the Azzurri 25 points ahead of the Rossoneri before the match (0-0 at the Meazza).
➤ Napoli are without a draw for longer than any other current Serie A side: 23 games in a row without drawing (W21, L2); only Bochum (one) has collected fewer draws than the Azzurri (two) in the big five European Leagues in 2022/23.
➤ Across the last nine league matches, only Lecce (six) have suffered more defeats than Milan (five) in Serie A and only Cremonese (17) have conceded more goals than the Rossoneri (16) in the top-flight.
➤ Napoli have scored the most headed goals in the big five European Leagues in 2022/23 (15), AC Milan (10) have conceded the most headed goals in Serie A this term – in the big five European leagues, only Angers (12), Eintracht Frankfurt, Bournemouth and Southampton (11 each) have conceded more goals in this way than the Rossoneri this season.
➤ Victor Osimhen has netted a goal every 91 minutes on average in Serie A in 22/23; among players with at least 20 goals scored in a single top-flight campaign in the three points for a win era, only four players can better that rate: Muriel (1 every 65 in 2020/21), Vieri (1 every 78 in 2002/03), Higuaín (1 every 83 in 2015/16) and Immobile (1 every 88 in 2019/20).
➤ AC Milan are Piotr Zielinski’s favourite opponent in Serie A, with four goals scored against them, including his first brace in the competition (25th of August 2018, Napoli-AC Milan 3-2) – the Polish player is gaining attention in this tournament more for assists (seven) than for goals (three) and is chasing his record for assists in a single Serie A season (10 in 2020/21).
➤ Olivier Giroud has scored in his last two league games against Napoli and he could become the first AC Milan player to score in three consecutive appearances against them in Serie A in the three points for a win era (since 1994-95).
Ones to watch
It will be very interesting to see Calabria back in the starting XI. It won’t be an easy task for him, that’s for sure, but he’s eager to prove his quality after sitting on the bench for most of the time with the three-man backline.
In addition to him, Giroud will also be a very important player for Milan. He knows a thing or two about deciding a game away at Napoli, and the Rossoneri need to be a lot more clinical than in the reverse fixture which hopefully, he can help with.
As for Napoli, Lobotka is one of the main keys to unlocking the game. He has great vision and it remains to be seen if Krunic will be man-marking him. It would make sense, seeing as he’s a great build-up player.
Kvaratskhelia must be mentioned, especially now that Osimhen is injured. He won a penalty in the reverse fixture and Calabria will have to keep him at bay. He did that in the first leg, but was carded and thus subbed off at half-time.
Prediction
It will be a tough game for Milan, there is no doubt about it, but it will be important to at least put in a good performance ahead of the UCL encounters. A draw seems optimistic yet likely, a win would require something we haven’t seen of the Rossoneri this year.
Napoli 1-1 AC Milan
Source sempremilan.com
