I’m going to make a big call on England this weekend: if they don’t win their opening match, they DON’T finish in the top two in their group.
I think it’s massive they get off to a flying start, in terms of confidence and belief, and if they don’t, then I can see disaster looming, just as it did against Iceland five years ago.
Look, I’m not saying they will crash out. There’s a chance that third will get them into the knock out for a start, and in reality, they should beat Croatia.
They’re not the team they were three years ago which got to the World Cup final. They’re older, less dynamic, have less of a threat and rely too much on 35 year old Luca Modric.
But they’re a difficult side to break down, they can slug it out, and you don’t want to give them an advantage in the group, because I think danger lurks elsewhere for England.
Scotland will be a difficult team to beat. Even setting aside the intense British rivalry, Steve Clarke has created a unified, spirited outfit who are tough to break down and hard to overcome.
Going into the ‘Battle of Britain’ (it’s a rubbish title I know, but that’s what everyone will be saying in the days leading up to the game) on the back of a – God forbid – defeat to Croatia, or even a draw, will be a big problem.
It will give Scotland incentive and motivation, especially if they’ve managed to get something from their opening fixture against the Czech Republic, and will also put that seed of doubt and fear in the minds of Gareth Southgate’s players.
I spoke recently in this column about the inhibiting factor a defeat can have on a team. Somehow, everything gets a little less instinctive, a bit safer and two dimensional, all straight lines and safe passes.
I think we’ve seen that from England in the warm up games anyway, they have looked far too pedestrian for my liking. And a defeat in their opening game would create even more pressure and inhibition.
Who has to start for England on Sunday? Have your say belo w
I’m not really feeling it for Southgate’s team this year. I can see them getting out of the group – they really should – and if they win it, they can at least reach the quarter final.
But I’m not sure about the team. It’s clear Harry Maguire won’t be fit until at least the knock out stages, and Jordan Henderson hasn’t played any proper, intense football in a long time. Without those two, they lack experience and leadership.
Obviously Maguire won’t make the Croatia game, and I don’t think I’d risk Henderson either. That means a dilemma for the manager, does he go with four or three at the back?
My instinct is to stick with four, which they’ve played for the past three years, really. It’s what the clubs who provide the backbone of the side use, and the players are familiar with it. Now is not the time to start experimenting with a different line up.
I know it worked well in the World Cup, but apart from a few minutes against Romania, the current group haven’t played that formation for quite a while.
I also think because England have looked so pedestrian, they need some inspiration, so I’m going for Jack Grealish ahead of Jadon Sancho and Raheem Sterling, just to give that bit of spark and unpredictability.
He has shown in the warm ups, looked the best player at times, and alongside Phil Foden operating behind Harry Kane, that is an exciting trio, with a lot of intelligence in the movement, and quality in the delivery.
Add Mason Mount in as a the third player behind Kane, and you get guile and an eye for goal around the box. He’s got that sublime quality on the ball, just looks a proper footballer in his movement.
He can also drop into the middle of the park if England are getting over-run. And with Sancho, Sterling and Rashford all to come off the bench, there is massive threat.
But the lack of experience in midfield, and the problems at the back make them vulnerable, and I can’t see England getting beyond the quarters this year, unless the draw is very kind to them, as it was in the World Cup.
My England team to start against Croatia:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Mings, Shaw; Phillips, Rice; Foden, Mount, Grealish; Kane
My tip to win the Euros may be a surprise to many…and may offer decent odds for those looking at a value bet!
I’m going for Portugal to win it, even though they’re in the toughest group of the lot.
They are in there with Germany and France which is a helluva start to the tournament, but I’ve spoken about confidence and momentum so many times, and their first game is against Hungary.
France play Germany in the other opening fixture, and that puts massive pressure on straight away, because the team that loses is facing an uphill battle from there.
Portugal though should win their opening game, and that puts them in a good position. I also believe they have a stronger side than the one which won the Euros last time out.
In tournament football, belief and momentum is a powerful thing, and if they can come through that group, they’ll be thinking the draw has opened up for them, and I can see them repeating their heroics of five years ago.
(Image: Getty Images)
If Portugal do win it, then I think the player of the tournament will have to come from their ranks.
Cristiano Ronaldo is the obvious pick, but they have top class players all over the pitch, and I think Bruno Fernandes will want to show he’s on the same level as his legendary team-mate now.
There is attacking quality and youth too, and they seem to have a great blend. For the holders they’re fairly priced, and I can see them escaping the group of death and living a long Euros life.
France are the obvious favourites, but we’re already hearing little snippets of things not being right in the camp, and the injury worry over Benzema is a big problem for them. I’m not having Spain this year either.
Belgium are clearly one of the teams to beat, and on paper they have everything, but history tells us they always seem to come up just a little bit short, despite the immense quality they have right through the side.
So it’s Portugal for me – and at 10-1 which I’ve seen in places, that’s a proper run for your money if they get out of the group.
