England and their manager Gareth Southgate know that they are all but into the 2022 World Cup knockout stages after a win and a draw in their first two matches of Group B against Iran and the USA respectively.
But they are not there yet, and they are facing a dangerous Wales team who have a slim chance of making it through to the Last 16 themselves. So no counting the chickens yet, even though they are practically hatched.
So let’s run through the situations and scenarios for both teams and what they need to qualify.
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What do England need to qualify for the Last 16 of the 2022 World Cup?
England cannot be overtaken by both of Iran and the USA because they are one point ahead of the former and two points ahead of the latter.
So that means that if England draw or win against Wales they are guaranteed to go through.
Furthermore, if England win against Wales they are guaranteed top spot and if England draw they can get top spot if USA beat Iran or if that game finishes in a draw.
If England lose to Wales by three goals or fewer they will still go through on goal difference.
What do Wales need to qualify for the Last 16 of the 2022 World Cup?
For Wales it is simple.
If they beat England by four goals or more, they will go through. Additionally, any win is sufficient if Iran and USA draw.
You may wonder why three goals would not be enough, because then England and Wales would have the same points and the same goal difference, and Wales would have beaten England.
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But the rules of the 2022 World Cup say that the first decider between two teams who are level is points, then it is goal difference, then it is goals scored. And England have scored five more goals than Wales coming into the game so goal difference becomes the key factor.
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